Photo by Action Images/John Sibley
Match: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Iran
Date and Time: Wednesday 26 June 13:00 Local Time, 18:00 GMT, 20:30 Tehran Time
Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Match Projection:
Match Preview:
Prior to the commencement of the World Cup, this fixture was earmarked as a potential round of 16 decider with one of these nations requiring Argentina to defeat Nigeria to aid the progression of the other. The expectancy was that Bosnia and Herzegovina would be the nation on the brink of the World Cup knockout stage with Iran heading home; however this is not the case.
Bosnia and Herzegovina can feel aggrieved at this point regarding its early World Cup exit given the performance of the officials during its defeat against Nigeria – so things could have been very different had Edin Dzeko’s first have goal had not been wrongly disallowed for offside. That said, Nigeria goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama and some poor finishing also contributed to Bosnia’s defeat and elimination.
The question is how Safet Susic approaches this match. Will he revert to the 4-1-3-2 that worked so well during qualification or continue to use the 4-2-3-1 with a more defensive approach? Will he play other members of his squad now that Bosnia have been eliminated? In either scenario, it could mean that Vedad Ibisevic starts for Bosnia, scorer of Bosnia’s only goal of the competition so far. However, the early exit does not mean that players have not impressed; Miralem Pjanic, who is expected to be fit after missing training on Monday, has been the creative influence in the side with 10 shot assists – with everything going through the Roma midfielder – while Muhamed Besic has been a workhorse in the midfield, covering 23.5 km between the two matches while leading the side in passes (65.0 per 90), passing accuracy (91.5%), interceptions (6) as well as providing 2 shot assists.
The story here, however, is Iran’s potential progression to the World Cup knockout stage. While a 1-0 win may well be enough, it does need Argentina to beat Nigeria – and if both matches end up with 1-0 score lines in Iran’s favour it will come down to drawing lots for the first time in the History of the World Cup (and some people claim that penalties are a lottery!).
Iran were moments away from creating one of the shocks of this World Cup and having a wider margin for error entering this contest in the process; however Lionel Messi’s incredible late winner has resulted in Carlos Queiroz’s side requiring the Iran win/Nigeria lose combination of results in order to progress. However, for a national team that failed to play a single game for 119 days following its qualification due to sanctions placed against the nation at a political level, the fact that it enters its final group stage match with a chance of qualifying for the round of 16 is an achievement in itself.
Like Nigeria and Argentina before them, Bosnia and Herzegovina are going to find it tough to break through Queiroz’s hard-working, well-disciplined side set up with men behind the ball in a 4-2-3-1 formation that is more like a 4-5-1. The two defensive midfielders, Andranik Teymourian and Javad Nekounam embody its hard-working nature, covering distances of 21.9 km and 21.8 km respectively as the Iranians spend a lot of time without possession – averaging just 27.4% over its first two matches, the lowest average possession in the World Cup so far. Teymourian and Nekounam are the only players in the Iranian squad to have surpassed 40 pass attempts between the first two matches – with all but four players attempting less than 30.
Still, Iran probably had the best opportunities to score against both Nigeria and Argentina, as well as looking more likely to score during an impressive second half against the South American nation before Messi’s moment of brilliance. While Iran had one good chance against Nigeria – a Reza Ghoochanneijhad header from an Ashkan Dejagah corner – both players had strong opportunities against Argentina as Iran had a number of opportunities in the central zone of the box:
Ghoochanneijhad and Dejagah are Iran’s main attacking threats but Queiroz may field a more attacking line-up against Bosnia. The Charlton striker embodies Iran’s hard-working nature (21.4 km covered so far) while attempting a team-leading seven shots, but the creative force in the side is Dejagah (five shot assists as 17.9% of his passes have created opportunities). If Iran are going to score at this World Cup, one of these two players will be involved regardless of who else joins them in the Iranian attack – and potentially both. Queiroz knows that his side’s finishing will need to improve.
”My major concern is to keep players focused,” Queiroz told reporters. ”And, they’ll need to convert those chances.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina are the favourites according to the BSports Match Analysis tool, which really is unsurprising given the players available to Safet Susic – so Iran will continue in its underdog role in a match in which it can qualify for the World Cup round of 16.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Injuries & Suspensions: Miralem Pjanic (Probable)
Iran Injuries & Suspensions: None
Other Match Analysis Forecasts: